Reaction to the Autumn Budget 2025: Andrew Lowson

Thank you to everyone who joined us at this year’s Post-Budget Brunch as part of the excellent York Business Festival. It was great to see so many of York’s business community coming together to explore the Autumn Statement and what it means for York’s economy

Now that the dust has settled and we have a slightly clearer picture of what this Budget really means in practice, I wanted to share a few reflections and observations on where it leaves York’s business community.

I try to be balanced when judging anything in life. Would I like to be the Chancellor in the current world climate? Absolutely not. But sometimes you have to call things as you see them – especially when it feels like decisions are being made with very little understanding of how businesses are actually operating on the ground.

Let’s start on a positive. The market reaction to the Budget was not too bad, and considering the shadow of recent mini-Budgets still hangs over us (along with the state of public finances), that’s a win… or is it? Businesses rely on confidence to make investment decisions, yet the projections from this Budget suggest stilted growth. For context, no other major European country is performing much better, but this government committed to delivering a growth agenda. Some innovation – for example, investment in removing the perpetual block that is local planning – would have been welcome.

I’ll try another positive. The office sector in York appears stable. Opportunities will arise as Network Rail transitions to Great British Rail during the industry shake-up, and our major insurance and accountancy firms tell us work is brisk. Solicitors’ practices are also busy, with succession planning for farmers a timely source of income.

Positives noted – but we must also acknowledge the difficult realities.

For years, businesses have been calling for comprehensive reform of the business rates system. Over the past decade, online shopping has transformed retail; out-of-town developments have expanded; and the cost of travelling into York city centre has increased – all while business rates have continued to rise. Yes, post-Covid relief has helped, and thank goodness it did. Budget headlines promised lower rates and a clampdown on online giants, but early feedback from York businesses suggests rates are increasing overall, a view echoed by trade bodies such as UK Hospitality.

I won’t dwell too much on minimum wage rises. Many York businesses I know take pride in looking after their staff and acknowledge the impact of inflation. But with weak growth forecasts and persistently high costs of goods, once again businesses will shoulder the burden. And from what many tell me, the slice of the profit pie is getting even thinner.

On the subject of a potential tourist tax – this has been a topic of discussion among BID Directors and York hoteliers for 18 months. The notion of a nominal fee that tourists pay to help service a local area is not outlandish and I can see scope for it. However, York hotels are clear: this is not the right time. If such a scheme is introduced, they would expect a voice in how revenue is spent, and their expertise in booking systems and operational processes must be central to any collection model.

At present, what we have is a public-sector proposal with no detail. Plenty of talk about including wider hospitality such as Airbnbs – but no clarity on regulation. Plenty of talk about community benefit – but little on how the businesses responsible for collecting the levy would be supported. In my experience, schemes launched without buy-in from the very people delivering them rarely succeed.

In the 1990s, the Labour Party marched to D:Ream’s now-famous line: things can only get better. If businesses are really at a low ebb right now, let’s hope that sentiment proves true.

We’re so grateful for the support of Brendan Paddison, Dean of York Business School at York St John University and thank our partners HSBC Bank UK and for helping us deliver a timely and insightful session at the York Business Festival. A particular thanks to Chris Hare, Senior Economist at HSBC, for providing expert analysis just days after the Budget announcement.